Transition in Energy

&

away from Oil & Gas

PSECC Ltd – Energy & Water Strategy Coordinators and Gleeds Global for Project Management

The Kenya Energy Transition & Investment Plan (ETIP) 2023-2050 estimates that a significant investment is required for Kenya to transition to a low-carbon energy sector and achieve its Net Zero ambitions by 2050. Here’s what the document specifies:

• Total Investment Needed: The ETIP indicates that around USD 600 billion in capital investment is required between 2023 and 2050 for the energy transition. This represents an additional USD 165 billion compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.

Investment Breakdown:

The specific breakdown of this investment across different sectors isn’t explicitly provided in a single figure within the document. However, the ETIP highlights that the power and transport sectors will require the majority of the investment.

Financing Sources:

The ETIP acknowledges that capital markets will be the largest funding pool for these investments. However, it also emphasizes the need for de-risking interventions to attract private sector investment. These interventions could include:

• Policy certainty and long-term commitment to clean energy goals.
• Public-private partnerships to share risks and rewards.
• Development of innovative financing mechanisms like green bonds.

Finding the Information:

You can access the Kenya Energy Transition & Investment Plan (ETIP) 2023-2050 here: https://energy.go.ke/sites/default/files/KAWI/Kenya-ETIP-2050%202.pdf

Key Points:

• The ETIP provides a roadmap for Kenya’s energy transition but doesn’t offer a detailed sector-wise investment breakdown.
• The power and transport sectors are expected to require the most significant investments.
• Capital markets are expected to be the primary source of funding, but de-risking strategies are crucial to attract private sector involvement.

Achieving Net Zero by 2048 in the Lapsset Corridor is an extremely ambitious target set by PSECC Ltd. It would require a rapid and comprehensive transition towards a highly sustainable and low-carbon economy. Here’s a breakdown of key actions GOK (Government of Kenya) have already taken and can take:

Energy Sector Transformation:

• Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment: Significantly scale up renewable energy generation beyond the existing solar farm plan inline with Vision 2030. Explore large-scale solar, wind, geothermal, or even hydroelectricity projects (if feasible) to power the corridor entirely with clean energy.
• Energy Storage: Invest in energy storage solutions like battery systems, pumped hydro to manage the variability of renewable energy sources and ensure a stable grid.
• Smart Grid Technology: Implement a smart grid throughout the corridor to optimize energy distribution, reduce losses, and integrate renewable energy seamlessly.

Transportation and Logistics:

• Electric Vehicle Transition: Rapidly transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and Green Hydrogen cars, trucks and trains for both passenger and freight transport within the corridor. This requires a significant increase in charging infrastructure and incentives for EV adoption. Explore green hydrogen for long-distance transport if production becomes viable.
• Public Transportation Network: Develop a robust and efficient public transportation system like electric, Green Hydrogen buses or trains to reduce reliance on private vehicles.
• Sustainable Logistics Practices: Promote efficient logistics practices to minimize unnecessary travel and fuel consumption. This could involve optimizing delivery routes and consolidating cargo.

Industrial and Agricultural Sectors:

• Green Industrial Processes: Encourage industries operating within the corridor to adopt cleaner production technologies and processes that minimize emissions.
• Sustainable Agriculture: Promote sustainable agricultural practices such as the “Harvesting the Sun Twice” projects that reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This could involve techniques like conservation agriculture or organic farming.

Land Use and Forestry:

• Strict Environmental Regulations: Implement strict environmental regulations to minimize deforestation and promote sustainable land management practices throughout the corridor.
• Afforestation and Forest Conservation: Launch large-scale afforestation programs to create carbon sinks and offset remaining emissions. Protect and conserve existing forests within the corridor.

Other Measures:

• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): Explore the feasibility of CCS technologies to capture and store emissions from sectors where complete elimination is difficult.
• Green Finance: Establish a green finance framework to attract investments towards sustainable projects within the corridor.
• Community Engagement: Actively engage with communities throughout the Lapsset Corridor to raise awareness about climate change and encourage their participation in achieving Net Zero. This could involve education programs and incentive schemes.
• Monitoring and Transparency: Establish robust monitoring systems to track progress towards Net Zero and implement transparent reporting mechanisms to keep stakeholders informed.

Challenges and Considerations:

• Financial Investment: The transition to Net Zero will require significant financial investments. GOK will need to explore innovative financing mechanisms like public-private partnerships or green bonds.
• Technological Advancement: Some technologies needed for Net Zero, like efficient and affordable carbon capture, might require further development.
• Social Impacts: The transition might require adjustments in certain sectors and could potentially lead to job displacement. GOK should develop plans to manage these impacts and ensure a just transition for workers.

Achieving Net Zero by 2048 in the Lapsset Corridor is undeniably ambitious, but by taking decisive and comprehensive actions across various sectors, GOK can put the corridor on a path towards a sustainable and climate-friendly future.

Kenya 100% Green Energy by 2030

PSECC Ltd Energy proposals could save in total the CO2 Emission reduction (lower limit) – 65.70 million tons per year to 85 million tons per year upper limit of Carbon Dioxide in the Lapsset Corridor & Kenya.

Carbon Dioxide consideration regarding choice of Energy system deployment

Here is a table of some common energy sources and their CO2 emission factors, based on the data from Our World in Data and IEA

Energy source	CO2 emission factor (kg CO2/MWh)
Coal	820 – 1100
Natural gas	350 – 490
Oil	610 – 720
Nuclear	3.7 – 110
Solar PV	18 – 55
Wind	8 – 20
Hydropower	2.5 – 34
Biomass	18 – 230
Geothermal	38 – 79

Note that these emission factors are averages and may vary depending on the specific technology, location, and fuel quality. Also, these emission factors do not include the life-cycle emissions of the energy sources, such as the extraction, transportation, and construction of the facilities, which could add to the total greenhouse gas emissions. 

Transitioning the Lapsset Corridor project in Kenya to Net-zero and away from fossil fuels requires a comprehensive energy transition plan.

Agreement reached at COP28

Here are some key elements that should be included for Lapsset Corridor:

1. Renewable Energy Generation: The plan should prioritize the development and adoption of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal power. This includes erecting large-scale solar farms, wind turbines, and exploring the potential for geothermal energy in the region.

2. Smart Grid Infrastructure: Implementing a smart grid infrastructure will enable efficient energy distribution, demand response, and real-time monitoring. This will optimize energy use, reduce losses, and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources.

3. Energy Efficiency Measures: Emphasize the importance of energy efficiency by promoting energy-efficient technologies, appliances, and building design practices in the Lapsset Corridor project. This includes setting energy efficiency standards for buildings and promoting energy audits and retrofits.

4. Electrification of Transport: Develop a plan for transitioning away from fossil fuel-dependent transportation to electric transport options. Promote the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), establish EV charging infrastructure, and incentivize EV adoption by introducing tax incentives and other policy measures.

5. Research and Innovation: Promote research and development in clean energy technologies and solutions specific to the Lapsset Corridor project. Encourage collaborations with academic institutions, private enterprises, and international organizations to foster innovation and identify new opportunities.

6. Energy Storage Solutions: Invest in energy storage technologies like battery systems to address the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources. Energy storage will ensure a continuous and reliable power supply, even during periods of low renewable energy generation.

7. Community Engagement and Awareness: Engage local communities and stakeholders in the planning and implementation process. Build awareness about the benefits of transitioning to clean energy, involve local businesses and organizations, and provide opportunities for training and skill development in the renewable energy sector.

8. Policy and Regulatory Framework: Develop an enabling policy and regulatory environment that supports the energy transition. This includes establishing renewable energy feed-in tariffs, removing barriers to renewable energy investment, and providing financial incentives for clean energy projects.

9. Capacity Building and Workforce Development: Invest in training and capacity-building programs for local technicians, engineers, and experts to support the clean energy transition. This will help build a skilled workforce capable of operating and maintaining renewable energy infrastructure.

10. Monitoring and Evaluation: Implement an effective monitoring and evaluation system to track the progress of the energy transition, assess the effectiveness of policies and programs, and make necessary adjustments along the way. By integrating these components into the energy transition plan, the Lapsset Corridor project in Kenya can achieve a net-zero carbon footprint and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, contributing to a more sustainable and environmentally friendly energy future.

These two reports could be of interest to Kenya

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