Climate Change

Over the past 10,000 years, the Earth’s climate has allowed civilizations to blossom, relying on steady conditions to cultivate land. Now, greenhouse gas emissions are causing rapid warming of the planet’s climate. Communities and ecosystems worldwide can’t adapt to temperature rise at current rates. Solutions need to be rapidly put in place to overcome this global challenge.

It has been announced in April 2024 that the World can expect to see the first “Tipping point” to be reached in two years time. The scientific community doesn’t have a definitive answer to which specific tipping point will occur first or provide an exact date for its arrival. However, several potential tipping points are concerning scientists due to their potential to accelerate global warming significantly. Here’s a breakdown of what we know:

Tipping Points Explained: These are critical thresholds in the climate system beyond which irreversible changes can occur. Climate tipping points are gradual warming that can reach a point where feedback loops amplify warming, making it difficult or impossible to reverse.

Potential First Tipping Points: Here are some often-discussed potential first tipping points:

Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse: If warmer temperatures lead to increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet, sea levels could rise significantly, impacting coastal cities worldwide. The exact timing for this is uncertain, but some models suggest it could occur in the latter half of this century or even sooner under extreme warming scenarios.
Die-off of Amazon Rainforest: The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide. If droughts and wildfires intensify due to climate change, the rainforest could transition to a drier state, releasing massive amounts of stored carbon and accelerating warming. Predicting the exact timing is difficult, but some scientists warn it could happen within decades.
Challenges in Prediction: The exact timing of tipping points depends on complex interactions within the climate system and the pace of future greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists are constantly refining climate models, but inherent uncertainties make precise predictions challenging.

The Importance of Action now:

While we can’t pinpoint the exact first tipping point or its timing but it has now been brought forward to two years time by some scientists, the potential consequences highlight the urgency of mitigating climate change. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions such as in Lapsset Corridor we can buy time to prevent these tipping points from being reached.

Here are some resources for further exploration:

Explainer: The Tipping Points of Climate Change: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn
Tipping points in the climate system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system

Lapsset Corridor will need to be COP28 Compliant

Prof Judi Wakhungu, previous Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources said “Climate change has adverse impacts on our country’s economic development and threatens the realisation of our Vision 2030 goals of creating a competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life. Kenya’s economy is highly dependent on natural resources, meaning that recurring droughts, erratic rainfall patterns and floods will continue to negatively impact livelihoods and community assets.”

The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study.

It shows five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating caused by humanity to date.

These include the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.

At 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now expected, four of the five tipping points move from being possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, an additional five tipping points become possible, including changes to vast northern forests and the loss of almost all mountain glaciers.

In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.

In its latest review of climate change science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that tipping thresholds were unclear but the dangers would grow more likely as the planet heats up.

Counties carry the burden

Counties carry the heaviest burden of climate change impacts; they are where, the rubber meets the road, so to speak. It is therefore important that Counties take the lead in Kenya’s fight against climate change.

Kenya’s counties, especially those located in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), often bear the brunt of climate change impacts. Here’s why:

  • Increased Droughts and Water Scarcity: Climate change is leading to more frequent and severe droughts in Kenya. This disproportionately affects ASAL counties, where rainfall is already scarce. The lack of water impacts agriculture, livestock rearing, and overall livelihoods.
  • Erratic Rainfall Patterns: Even when rain does occur, it can be unpredictable and cause flash floods. This damages infrastructure and disrupts agricultural activities.
  • Land Degradation: Droughts and erratic rainfall contribute to land degradation, turning once fertile land barren and unproductive. This reduces agricultural output and increases food insecurity.
  • Sea Level Rise: Kenya’s coastal counties are vulnerable to sea level rise, salinization of freshwater sources, and increased intensity of storms. These factors threaten coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods.

Limited Adaptive Capacity: Many Kenyan counties, particularly those in ASAL regions, often lack the resources to adapt to climate change effectively. This includes limited access to drought-resistant crops, water-efficient irrigation systems, and early warning systems for extreme weather events.

Here are some resources that discuss climate change’s impact on Kenyan counties in more detail:

One main aim of the work of PSECC Ltd will be to reduce emissions from oil usage in the Lapsset Corridor in Kenya and introduce more Renewable Energy, ethanol and methanol plants built and the fuel used as a substitute for fossil fuel.

Current Live date on CO2 emissions

The Government of Kenya recognizes the threats posed by climate change and has taken action to address them. In this regard, my ministry coordinated the development of the National Climate Change Response Strategy in 2010, and the National Climate
Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2013-2017) in 2012. This National Adaptation Plan (NAP) marks yet another landmark in efforts to address the country’s vulnerability and resilience to climate change.

The current estimated cost of implementing Kenya’s mitigation and adaptation actions stands at KES 6,775 billion (USD 65 billion) between 2020-2030.

Calculation of Climate Change

In the second figure above, the total human-induced global warming (orange line) estimated from observed temperatures is given almost exactly by simply adding the warming caused by CO2 emissions (dark grey) to the warming caused by other human activities (light grey): all lines of evidence agree on what is driving global temperature change. Human-induced warming (ΔT) over a time-interval ranging from seconds to decades is proportional to total cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over that time-interval (E) plus the impact of any change in global energy imbalance due to other human influences on climate (ΔF).

where κ is the “Transient Climate Response to Emissions” (about 0.4°C per trillion tonnes of CO2 [2]) and α is the “Normalised Absolute Global Warming Potential” of CO2 (about 1.0 W/m2 per trillion tonnes of CO2 [3]).

The Global Warming Index is run by researchers from the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

See here for further details about the numbers, graphics, and methods used above.

[1] Allen et al, npj Clim Atmos Sci 1, 16 (2018)
[2] Myhre et al (2013) in IPCC 5th Assessment Report, incl. uncertainty range of 0.23-0.68°C/TtCO2.
[3] α = AGWPCO2/H, where H is the AGWP time-horizon. Myhre et al (2013) give values of 0.9-1.2 W/m2 per trillion tonnes of CO2 in the 20-100 yr range.

In 2015, the Government of Kenya submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, a landmark agreement to combat climate change. Kenya pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030 relative to the business-as usual scenario. At the time, the Government of Kenya estimated that KES 4,040 billion (USD 40 billion) would be needed by 2030 to meet its NDC target. In 2018, these numbers were revised upwards in its National Climate Change Action plan (NCCAP) to KES 1,848 billion (USD 18.3 billion) for the 2018-2022 period only, equivalent to nearly KES 465 billion a year (USD 4.6 billion). In December 2020 the Government submitted an updated NDC further increasing the need. The current estimated cost of implementing Kenya’s mitigation and adaptation actions stands at KES 6,775 billion (USD 65 billion) in 2020-2030.

The Landscape of Climate Finance in Kenya is the first attempt to track the climate finance flows in the country since the Paris Agreement. The report finds that KES 243.3 billion (USD 2.4 billion) flowed to climate-related investments in 2018, one third of the finance needed annually. Led by the National Treasury of Kenya, the analysis shows that the financing tracked is disproportionally targeting certain sectors and activities that will only partially address climate issues and significant efforts will be needed to align all sectors relevant to achieving Kenya’s NDCs. If finance continues to flow at this same rate, Kenya will fall short of what is needed to achieve its climate goals.

Kenya’s key policy documents on Climate Change

From the above report – According to the financing strategy estimate, US$39.982 million are needed for the next 10 years (2020 – 2030) to implement priority climate mitigation and adaptation actions. The need for the first five years (2019/20 – 2023/24) totals $18.586 million and an additional $21.396 million are projected to cover the period 2024 – 2030. This funding gap (investment gap) is a conservative estimate, derived from the analysis of the costs of CC activities in the main government planning reports (the medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) 2018/19 and 2019/2020 reports; the third medium term plan (MTP2018-2022 or MTP III); and the NCCAP 2018-2022 or NCCAPII). The methodology for developing this financing strategy involved analysing the government’s planning and budgetary reports (MTEF, MTP III and NCCAPII) with a view to identifying priority climate action costs and the financing gap. Other reports reviewed included sectoral strategies and development reports. The resulting climate actions in government reports were compared with the priority actions identified over the short, medium and long term.

Kenya’s predominantly renewable energy mix will need to meet growing energy demands

Kenya has developed a well-diversified energy mix, and about 90 percent of its energy generation is renewable, with geothermal, hydro, and wind providing 48, 33, and 12 percent, respectively. Installed generation capacity is 3,121 megawatts (MW) compared to peak demand of 2,128 MW. Between 2015 and 2023, thermal (fossil fuel-based) capacity has declined from about one-third to about one-fifth of installed capacity, with generation halving to contribute only 10–12 percent of total energy generation in 2022. About 30 percent of installed capacity is owned and operated by independent power producers, which have mobilized at least $2.5 billion in private capital.


Kenya has leveraged regional integration and renewable energy imports in meeting its national power demand. The national utility, Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC), has recently signed a power purchase agreement with Ethiopia Electric Utility to import 200 MW from Ethiopia, increasing to 400 MW after three years, once the network strengthening investments are completed in Kenya’s system to allow it to absorb the increased import. Cross border energy trade is also happening on a small scale with Uganda and Tanzania (338 GWh in 2022).


While Kenya is a low GHG emitter, it should remain vigilant to avoid becoming reliant on fossil fuel production. It will need to install more than 1,500 MW of additional capacity by 2030 to meet the electricity demand. Electricity also contributes only about 9 percent of the country’s total energy supply. Biomass and fossil fuels account for 68 percent and 22 percent, respectively, with 74.7 percent of the population using biomass as their primary energy source, predominantly for cooking, with about 24 percent using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Growth in energy demand in energy-intensive industries—such as steel and cement manufacturing, which both use coal—may also contribute to higher GHG emissions.

The Kenya National Adaptation Plan 2015-2030 regrading Energy indicated there are Gaps to progressing Climate Change adaption – Financing, technology, capacity building and research. PSECC Ltd have been researching options over the past year for the Lapsset Corridor Energy & Water projects. As a result Climate Change mitigation is seen as an opportunity and not a burden on Government funding. All of the Renewable Energy projects provide a 30% shareholding for the Government.

PSECC Ltd – “Revenue generation for Kenya – Renewable Energy projects will pay for themselves and provide funding for further Climate Change Mitigation.” PSECC Ltd is also offering assistance to Africatalyst.

Charles Sunkuli, previous Principal Secretary – State Department of Environment has indicated “the technical inputs of the Adaptation Thematic Working Group (TWG), whose membership was inclusive and drawn from Government, civil society, academia and
the private sector institutions, enriched the process. The contribution of the TWG members, both individually and corporately, is greatly appreciated. The Ministry is also grateful to the national and international adaptation experts who provided valuable technical guidance to the process. The NAP was finalised with the support of the Technical Assistance component of the Strengthening Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change Plus (STARCK+) programme, which is funded by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID).”

Nairobi Declaration on Climate Change 2023

Lapsset Corridor Climate Actions proposed by PSECC Ltd

Kenya, as a developing country, faces numerous challenges when it comes to addressing climate change. The impacts of climate change within the Lapsset Corridor, such as extreme weather events, water scarcity, and food insecurity, are already being felt in the country.

In order to address these challenges within the Lapsset Corridor Kenya can take several actions:

Energy project funding

When considering build funding for the Energy projects it will be important for PSECC to work closely with Afri Fund Capital team members, LCDA Board, Gleeds and Central Kenya Government Ministry of Finance in order to make application to UK Export Finance, EIB and other COP28 funding platforms. COP28 commitments made on Climate change Mitigation are very ambitious and achievable and we can make the Lapsset Corridor project a show case COP28 Flagship project and that sits very nicely in with President Ruto’s Lapsset Corridor Flagship policy.

Implementing sustainable land management practices to enhance resilience to climate change impacts. This includes promoting sustainable agriculture, reforestation, and soil conservation practices – Solar powered water irrigation.

Investing in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and decrease reliance on fossil fuels.

Strengthening disaster risk reduction and management policies to minimize the impacts of climate-related disasters such as floods and droughts – building more Dams for catchment purposes.

Building climate resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events and reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts and introducing smart agriculture.

Enhancing climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts through policies and strategies that promote sustainable development and low-carbon growth.

Engaging our international Lapsset Corridor partnerships and collaborations to access funding and technical assistance for climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Further educating the public and raising awareness about the impacts of climate change and the importance of taking action to address them.

By implementing these actions, Kenya can work towards building resilience to climate change impacts and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, ultimately contributing to global efforts to address climate change.

UK £45 million

PSECC Ltd Energy proposals could save in total the CO2 Emission reduction (lower limit) – 65.70 million tons per year to 85 million tons per year upper limit of Carbon Dioxide in the Lapsset Corridor & Kenya

Droughts in Kenya – Isiolo

When considering sustainable development for the Lapsset Corridor in Kenya, it is crucial to take into account water and energy factors, while also addressing climate change mitigation. Here are some key considerations:

1. Water management: Lapsset Corridor, being a major infrastructure project, will require adequate water resources for construction, operational activities, and the communities living along the corridor. It’s essential to assess water availability, establish sustainable water management practices, and implement measures to minimize water extraction impacts on local ecosystems and communities.

2. Energy sources: The project should prioritize the use of renewable energy sources for both construction activities and ongoing operations along the corridor. Utilizing solar, wind, or hydro power can reduce carbon emissions and enhance the sustainability of the development.

3. Climate change resilience: Due to climate change, the Lapsset Corridor may face increased risks such as extreme weather events and sea-level rise. Infrastructure design should factor in these climate risks to ensure long-term resilience. Measures such as building climate-resilient structures, establishing early warning systems, and developing contingency plans can help mitigate climate-related impacts.

4. Green infrastructure: Integrating green infrastructure elements like urban green spaces, wetland preservation, and sustainable drainage systems can help reduce the corridor’s ecological footprint. Such measures improve water retention, mitigate urban heat island effects, and enhance biodiversity, thereby contributing to climate change adaptation and overall sustainability.

5. Carbon footprint reduction: The Lapsset Corridor’s development should prioritize low-carbon solutions, such as efficient transport systems and sustainable construction practices. Reducing carbon emissions, promoting energy-efficient technologies, and encouraging public transportation can contribute to climate change mitigation. 6. Community involvement: Engaging local communities in decision-making processes and providing them with benefits from the project’s development is essential for long-term sustainability.

Ensuring access to clean water, energy services, and involving local communities in renewable energy projects can enhance their livelihoods and contribute to sustainable development. Overall, the Lapsset Corridor’s sustainable development should focus on water and energy management, climate change resilience, minimizing its carbon footprint, and ensuring community participation. By integrating these considerations, the corridor can contribute to Kenya’s sustainable development goals while mitigating the impacts of climate change.

Office of the First Lady

Her Excellency Mrs. Rachel Ruto is the First Lady of the Republic of Kenya. She is a thought leader on the Environment and Climate Action, Financial inclusion and Women Empowerment.

CLIMATE AND AIR POLLUTION TARGETS

Climate and air pollution targets are proliferating at the city level as concerns about climate change grow and as awareness of the economic and human costs of pollution spreads (Table 1 below) for an overview of target types and examples).

Increasing the use of renewables in municipal operations and city-wide within the Lapsset Corridor, and increasing urban renewable energy generation, often will be part of efforts to achieve these targets. Emissions reduction targets, aimed at cutting emissions from a baseline level by a specific date, are the most common city level climate target worldwide. Such targets vary in scope, with the goal of decarbonising, for example, municipal operations, city-wide electricity consumption, city-wide energy supply (in the power, heating and cooling, transport and/or cooking sectors) or city-wide emissions from sectors such as waste management or large industry. Some city governments have introduced stepped targets with clearly defined interim goals, which facilitate monitoring, reporting and identifying deviations from long-term goals; they also allow for introducing additional policy or regulatory interventions to keep progress on track.

For example, Riga (Latvia) has targets to reduce the city’s CO2 emissions 55-60% by 2020, 70% by 2030 and 85-90% by 2050 (all from 1990 levels).


Stepped emissions reduction targets also exist in Abasan al Kabira (State of Palestine), Athens (Greece), Bornova (Turkey), Brasília (Brazil), Cainta (Philippines), Cape Town (South Africa), Minneapolis (Minnesota, US), Providencia (Chile) and Taipei (Chinese Taipei), among other cities.

Several cities are going further by adopting net zero carbon targets (or carbon-neutral targets) that commit them to reducing carbon emissions to zero, whether community-wide or for specific districts or buildings. As of mid-2019, 21 cities in Australia, Europe and North America had adopted community wide net zero targets.

At the Global Climate Action Summit in September 2019, another 100 cities announced goals to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Adelaide (Australia) and
Copenhagen (Denmark) both have articulated plans to become the world’s first carbon-neutral city. Byron Shire (Australia) plans to transition to zero emissions by 2025, and net zero targets also exist in Boston (Massachusetts, US), Heidelberg (Germany),
Montreal (Canada) and Oslo (Norway).

Source: Figure AR6 WG2 (ipcc.ch)

Projected risks and impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at different global warming levels (GWLs) relative to 1850–1900 levels. 

Projected risks and impacts shown on the maps are based on outputs from different subsets of Earth system models that were used to project each impact indicator without additional adaptation. WGII provides further assessment of the impacts on human and natural systems using these projections and additional lines of evidence. (a) Risks of species losses as indicated by the percentage of assessed species exposed to potentially dangerous temperature conditions, as defined by conditions beyond the estimated historical (1850-2005) maximum mean annual temperature experienced by each species, at GWLs of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C.

Underpinning projections of temperature are from 21 Earth system models and do not consider extreme events impacting ecosystems such as the Arctic. (b) Risk to human health as indicated by the days per year of population exposure to hypothermic conditions that pose a risk of mortality from surface air temperature and humidity conditions for historical period (1991- 2005) and at GWLs of 1.7°C–2.3°C (mean = 1.9°C; 13 climate models), 2.4°C–3.1°C (2.7°C; 16 climate models) and 4.2°C–5.4°C (4.7°C; 15 climate models). Interquartile ranges of WGLs by 2081-2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The presented index is consistent with common features found in many indices included within WGI and WGII assessments. (c) Impacts on food production: (c1) Changes in maize yield at projected GWLs of 1.6°C–2.4o C (2.0°C), 3.3°C–4.8o C (4.1°C) and 3.9°C–6.0o C (4.9°C).

Median yield changes from an ensemble of 12 crop models, each driven by bias-adjusted outputs from 5 Earth system models from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Maps depict 2080–2099 compared to 1986–2005 for current growing regions (>10 ha), with the corresponding range of future global warming levels shown under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Hatching indicates areas where <70% of the climate crop model combinations agree on the sign of impact. (c2) Changes in maximum fisheries catch potential by 2081–2099 relative to 1986–2005 at projected GWLs of 0.9°C–2.0°C (1.5°C) and 3.4°C–5.2°C (4.3°C). GWLs by 2081–2100 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Hatching indicates where the two climate-fisheries models disagree in the direction of change. Large relative changes in low yielding regions may correspond to small absolute changes. Biodiversity and fisheries in Antarctica were not analysed due to data limitations.

climate Change Summit in Nairobi 2023

Nairobi Climate Change Declaration in 2009

Carbon Capture

How do CO2 emissions and other climate drivers contribute to global warming?